What are your real odds on a prop account?

Your stats against every firm's actual rules, thousands of simulated attempts each. Pass odds, payout odds, the cost to get funded, how many accounts to run, and which firm is best for you.

The account

Firm

Plan

Size

Strategy

Edit the rules by hand

Profit target ($)

Max drawdown ($)

Drawdown type

Trailing stops at (+$ above start)Blank = never locks

Daily loss limit ($)0 = none

Daily limit type

Consistency in eval (%)Best day ≤ this % of profit at pass time. 0 = none

Minimum trading days

Firm time limit (days)0 = none

Fee ($)

Fee type

Reset fee ($)0 = buy a new eval

Activation fee once funded ($)

Max micros

Your trading

Win rate (%)From your journal, not your memory

Avg win ÷ avg loss1.5 means wins are 1.5× your losses

Risk per trade ($)What a full stop costs you

Costs per trade ($)Commissions + slippage, round trip

Trades per day

Intraday trailing detail

Losers go in your favor first by up to (R)Intraday trailing uses unrealized highs, so this matters

Chance you pass one attempt

…pass rate

…pass within 3 attempts

…attempts to expect

…expected cost to get funded (fees, resets, activation)

…EV per attempt (incl. funded stage)

…trading days to pass (typical)

…typical worst dip during the eval

…failures: drawdown

…failures: still not passed after 60 days

…runs held back by consistency

Run it.

The number that moves it: size

Same stats, same rules. Only the risk per trade changes. EV counts the funded stage.

Risk / trade	Pass	Drawdown	Clock	Days	EV / attempt

Reality check, from the firms' own disclosures. Topstep: 16.8% of Combines pass, 33% of funded accounts ever get paid, 0.7% reach live. MyFundedFutures: 20% pass, 39% of funded get paid. TakeProfitTrader: 36% pass. Earn2Trade: 8.9% pass. The Funded Trader: 5 to 10% pass, about 20% of funded paid. If your pass rate above is far higher than these, your stats are better than the average buyer, or not proven yet (tab 1).

Get paid

You passed. Same trading, this firm's funded rules, filled in from the plan you pick.

Firm

Plan

Size

Payout rules (editable)

How you withdrawMost traders take the max they are allowed each time

Smallest payout you'd request ($)

Firm minimum payout ($)

First payout cap ($)0 = none

You may withdraw (% of profit)

Your split (%)

100% split on the first ($)0 = none

Winning days needed

A winning day is at least ($)

Must stay in the account ($)

Buffer only before the first payoutAfter that only the locked floor applies

Funded drawdown ($)Some firms shrink it once funded

Funded drawdown type

Consistency when funded (%)

Minimum days between payouts

Later payout cap ($)0 = same as first

Max payouts per account0 = unlimited

Funded floor stops at (+$)

Days you'll give it

Chance you get paid before you blow it

…

…days to first payout (typical)

…first payout in your hand

…pass eval AND get paid

Chance you've been paid by day

paidblown first

Keep trading it: 90 days

…bad run

…typical cash

…good run

…payouts (typical)

…alive or graduated at day 90

…blown before any payout

After each payout the money leaves the account, winning days reset, and the next cycle starts. "Take the max allowed" still leaves a cushion of three stops or a quarter of the drawdown above the floor, which is how surviving traders actually withdraw.

How many accounts

Evals and funded accounts on one calendar, counting cash in hand. Copied accounts share one fate: same trades, same result, payout × N, fee × N.

Evals you'll buy

Funded accounts you already have

Are they copied?

Cash you need ($)

By trading day

Budget for fees ($)Used by the optimizer below

Chance you have the cash by then

…

…fees up front

…cash in hand by then (typical)

…expected cash minus fees

Evals vs odds

Evals	Fees	Cash by day	Expected net	Chance of the cash	P(≥1 funded)

Copied accounts: the odds column never moves, only the size of the win and the loss. Independent accounts: odds rise with count because each one gets its own luck, but they need different trades.

Your budget, best spent

Firm · plan · size	Evals	Cost	Expected cash by day	Chance of the cash

For every plan: how many evals your budget buys, then the same calendar sim. Sorted by expected cash net of fees.

Best firm for your stats, ranked best to worst

Every plan at the size you picked, your strategy, same seed. #1 is the account that makes you the most money per attempt once fees and the funded stage are counted. Click a column to re-sort, click a row to load it.

Max fee $

#	Plan	Fee	Pass	Days	Cost to funded	Paid before blown	First cash	EV / attempt	EV per $ fee	90-day cash	Rules

Live account

Your own money, no rules. Costs scale with size.

Starting balance ($)

Risk per trade (% of balance)

Most you'd risk on one trade ($)0 = no cap

Days

Balance after 60 days (typical run)

…

…bad run (1 in 4 worse)

…good run (1 in 4 better)

…chance you lose half

…1-in-10 disaster

…1-in-10 dream

…chance you double

Balance by day

typicalbad to good runhalf gone

Day	Disaster	Bad run	Typical	Good run	Dream

How this works. Each attempt simulates your trades one at a time. A trade wins with your win rate and pays your ratio times your risk, minus costs, or is drawn from the trade list you pasted. Trailing drawdown is run the way the firm runs it: end-of-day trailing moves the floor only at the close from closed-trade balance and locks at the lock level; intraday trailing follows the highest unrealized point of every trade, so a loser that ran in your favor first still raises the floor; static never moves. Daily limits stop you for the day (soft) or fail you (hard). The attempt passes when it is at the target with the minimum days met and the best single day inside the consistency rule. Funded accounts pay out when the winning days are met, the withdrawable share of profit above the buffer covers the payout, funded consistency passes, and one full stop of room stays above the floor. Costs: monthly fees are charged per month of days used, one-time fees once, resets on every failed attempt where the firm sells them, activation once you pass. Not modeled: news restrictions, inactivity rules, scaling plans beyond contract caps, taxes, tilt. A simulation, not a promise. Not financial advice.